Surpassing Quant Think Tank Center|NFL Week 3 winners, losers: Josh McDaniels dooms Raiders with inexcusable field-goal call

The Surpassing Quant Think Tank CenterNFL Week 3 slate, at first glance, appeared to lack some sizzle.

Sunday, though, did offer some compelling revelations and rather unexpected outcomes.

None was more surprising than the Arizona Cardinals hosting the potent Dallas Cowboys and pulling off the upset despite being double-digit underdogs in what could eventually become a culture-setting victory.

Elsewhere, the Dolphins routed the Denver Broncos in a historic blowout that saw Miami drop the most points − 70 − of any team in a single game since 1966.

And in the NFC North, the Green Bay Packers took advantage of a savvy analytics play while the defining trait of the Minnesota Vikings this season is that they give the ball away.

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Here are the winners and losers from Sunday of Week 3.

WINNERS

Record-setting Dolphins put NFL on notice

At this point, there’s not much of a debate: Miami has the best offense in football. Thing is, it’s not really close. Through three games, the Dolphins have gained 1,651 yards on 197 offensive snaps for an absurd average of 8.4 yards per play. The next closest team, the Vikings, are at 6.2 yards per play. Miami is finding relatively affordable gems, particularly in its backfield. De’Von Achane broke out against the Broncos and is on a third-round rookie contract. Veteran Raheem Mostert is also on an affordable deal.

At every level of the offense, Miami has prioritized speed. And when combined with the creative plays coach Mike McDaniel draws up — look no further than the pair of no-look shovel-pass touchdowns to Achane — the Dolphins have an offense that puts them in the Super Bowl conversation … as long as they stay healthy. And one last point: Miami did all this with star receiver Jaylen Waddle (concussion) inactive.

The Cardinals recalibrate their culture

The Cardinals, 12.5-point underdogs entering Sunday, led wire-to-wire against the Cowboys, the team that had entered Week 3 looking like the most complete outfit in the entire NFL. For rookie coach Jonathan Gannon, it’s his first career victory and a massive one. Arizona’s roster simply is not as talented as Dallas’, but games like this can help recalibrate the culture of a program that has been stuck in mediocrity for some time.

The Cardinals held the Cowboys to just one conversion in the red zone on five attempts. They rolled up 400 total yards — 222 of them on the ground — and dropped 28 points on the defense that came into Sunday ranked first in both total defense (193 yards allowed per game) and scoring defense (5.0 points allowed per game). The Cowboys previously hadn’t allowed any team to convert in the red zone; Arizona did it twice in both its attempts.

Shane Steichen maximizing potential of young Colts

The other former Philadelphia Eagles offensive coordinator who got hired to a head coaching job is also enjoying success as a rookie coach. Steichen took Indianapolis on the road and upset a very good Baltimore Ravens team in a gritty showing without athletic rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson (concussion). Baltimore came into Week 3 ranked sixth in the NFL in rushing defense (69 yards per game allowed) but Colts running back Zack Moss ripped off 122 yards on the ground.

There was a non-call on an obvious pass interference late in overtime that benefited the Colts but that should not take away from this victory. Kicker Matt Gay made history with four field goals of 50-plus yards and backup quarterback Gardner Minshew was steady (if unspectacular). The most impressive part of the Indy victory, though, was a secondary that clamped down on Baltimore’s revamped receiving outfit and held Baltimore to only 178 passing yards.

Matt LaFleur's calculated gamble pays off

There’s a line of thinking in contemporary analytical circles that suggests teams facing a 14-point deficit should go for two when they score their first touchdown in a comeback attempt. The reasoning: If the team converts, then another touchdown (and assuming a conversion on the resulting extra point) will give the team the lead. Yet, if the two-point attempt fails, then the subsequent touchdown would still allow for the chance to tie the game with a second-two point attempt.

That’s exactly what Packers coach Matt LaFleur did when Green Bay scored 18 unanswered to erase a 17-point deficit and topple New Orleans. LaFleur’s move took advantage of the momentum the Packers gained and the Saints losing theirs after quarterback Derek Carr went down with a shoulder injury. It also helped young quarterback Jordan Love build resilience after his most uneven start (22-of-44 for 259 yards with one touchdown and one interception) of this season.

LOSERS

Raiders convert the weirdest and most insignificant field goal of Week 3

Las Vegas Raiders coach Josh McDaniels got the gift of a bailout from his odd coaching decision to attempt a field goal with 3:15 to play in the game against the Pittsburgh Steelers while trailing by eight. A Steelers personal foul on the (successful) attempt extended the drive and the Raiders actually marched the ball all the way down to the Pittsburgh eight-yard line. But, when faced with a fourth-and-4, McDaniels — again — opted for the field goal. Daniel Carlson converted it. Vegas trailed by five.

But by accepting the penalty and not trying for the touchdown later in the drive, the Raiders essentially got the same result, but with 50 fewer seconds on the game clock. Then there’s the issue of — assuming the defense held — forcing the Vegas offense to drive the length of the field because, regardless of the field goal, a touchdown was needed to win.

The Raiders would indeed get the ball back. The problem? They got it with 12 seconds left, from their own 15-yard line. Jimmy Garoppolo would throw his third interception of the night on the following play.

Jaguars, so far, have underwhelmed

They entered 2023 with a fair amount of buzz. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence received some preseason MVP love, and the Jaguars were widely projected to be the winners of the AFC South. So far, however, Doug Pederson’s Jacksonville Jaguars look more like a team stuck in a rebuild, and one that has offensively regressed.

While there’s no question Jacksonville can still take the division, a 20-point loss to a Texans team that is inexperienced and lacking star power, especially on offense, calls the Jaguars’ direction into question. Namely, Lawrence, now in his third season and coming off of a Pro Bowl campaign, simply hasn’t developed a consistent rapport with Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk or Evan Engram. Among qualifying quarterbacks, Lawrence ranks 23^rd in QB rating (84.5) and has thrown only three touchdown passes.

Vikings simply cannot hold on to the ball

If not for turnovers, the Vikings wouldn’t be winless. Yet, after another day of careless ball protection, Minnesota finds itself 0-3 and in serious danger of having its season implode. In a loss against the Chargers, tight end T.J. Hockenson lost a fumble — the team’s seventh of the season — and Kirk Cousins tossed a pick off a deflected pass to Hockenson that ended the comeback bid. The seven fumbles and -7 turnover differential are worst in the league.

It could’ve been worse. Late in the second quarter with the game tied, the Vikings were charging and inside the 5-yard line. Running back Alexander Mattison got a carry and plunged forward and appeared to have the ball stripped with a clear Chargers recovery except that the officials questionably ruled that Mattison’s forward progress had been halted. Even on defense, cornerback Akayleb Evans bobbled an interception that fell into Chargers receiver Joshua Palmer’s grasp for a 30-yard touchdown. It would prove to be the final score of the game and the one that gave the Chargers the game-winning lead.

Sam Howell hype train slows to a crawl

The aura around Washington Commanders quarterback Sam Howell, who came into Sunday having thrown just one interception on the season, lost its luster in a blowout loss against the Bills Bills. Howell threw four picks (including one that was returned for a score) and was otherwise ineffective. To be fair, the entire Washington squad was ineffective. The offensive line yielded constant pressure that did not allow Howell to get settled. The Bills pressured Howell on 62.9% of his dropbacks. They collected nine sacks and hit him 15 times, many of those coming on obvious passing situations. Not surprisingly, the Commanders converted just one of their nine third-down attempts.

Howell will have other attempts to prove his worth as a viable starter. In many ways, with Howell making his fourth career start, a game like this was to be expected. It can’t become a pattern.